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Showing posts with label "death spiral". Show all posts
Showing posts with label "death spiral". Show all posts

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE AFFIRMS DEATH SPIRAL IN PARTY LINE VOTE; CONRAD SUGGESTS HE MAY VOTE AGAINST IT ON FLOOR WITH DIFFERENT OFFSET

September 30. An amendment proposed by Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ) to get rid of a 5% penalty for Medicare doctors who order treatments and tests for their patients that wind up in the 10% most expensive per patient over a year was defeated 13-10 in the Senate Finance Committee this evening, with all committee Republicans voting to end the penalty and all committee Democrats voting to keep it.

Before the vote, however, Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND), said, "We’d be well advised ... to drop the penalty. I want to commit to working with Senator Kyl to find [another] offset before we go to the floor." This was in line with Conrad’s remarks on September 29 when Senator Kyl first brought up the amendment and temporarily withdrew it in order try to work out an alternative way of paying for the elimination of the penalty, which is scored by the Congressional Budget Office as cutting Medicare payments by $1 billion over ten years. The senators and their staffs were unable to agree on such an alternative during the intervening 24 hours, but, as Senator Conrad’s remarks indicate, will continue to try to agree on one so as to be able to support a jointly acceptable amendment by the time the measure goes before the full Senate for a vote.

Of course, even if Senators Conrad and Kyl agree, that is no guarantee that an amendment they both support will in fact be adopted when offered on the Senate floor. "Those concerned with the grave danger that Medicare doctors will be induced to ration more and more each year by this ‘musical chair’ penalty need to redouble their efforts to convince their Senators in the short weeks before the Senate votes on health care restructuring," said Burke J. Balch, director of National Right to Life’s Powell Center for Medical Ethics.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

“DEATH SPIRAL” IN TROUBLE? NEGOTIATIONS BEHIND THE SCENES CONTEMPLATED

September 29. This evening in the Senate Finance Committee, Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ) offered his amendment to strike from the health care restructuring bill a provision imposing a 5 % penalty on one in ten Medicare physicians yearly, those whose costs per senior citizen wind up in the top 10%. However, he agreed temporarily to withdraw it at the request of Senator Kent Conrad (D - ND), who spoke out strongly against the penalty provision but sought modifications in the offset originally proposed by Senator Kyl. The temporary withdrawal raises the prospect that an agreed method might be worked out to strike the penalty provision.

The National Right to Life Committee strongly supports the Kyl Amendment and opposes the penalty provision. Senator Kyl quoted Executive Director David N. O'Steen, Ph.D., "This provision creates a cruel death spiral. By financially penalizing Medicare providers, the Baucus bill sets up the cruelest and most effective way to ensure that doctors are forced to ration care for their senior citizen patients. Instead of bureaucrats directly specifying the treatment denials that will mean death and poorer health care for older people, it compels individual doctors to do the dirty work."

Under the bill as it stands, any physician treating Medicare patients who ordered treatments and tests whose cost turned out to be in the highest ten percent per capita would have to pay back to the federal government five percent of all the Medicare reimbursements the physician had received for that year. Senator Kyl warned this would force a "race to the bottom." He said, "If we’re focused on evidence-based criteria, how can we in good conscience simply take an arbitrary number? Ten percent will take a hit regardless of results." He warned that it would create a "conflict of interest" for doctors who would be deterred from ordering what is in the best interests of their patients for fear that they might end up among the 10% of doctors who would face a hefty financial penalty each year. Kyl noted that the Alliance of Specialty Medicine, a coalition of 11 medical organizations representing 200,000 doctors, has endorsed his amendment.

Senator Conrad remarked, "As I try to think about putting … my feet in the shoes, of a doctor who might be treating Medicare patients facing this construct, it is one thing to have the feedback, I think we should absolutely… I think we should do that. But I think this putting in a penalty, that really leaves me cold. I don’t know how you separate out overutilization that is really overutilization from those doctors who may have a group of patients who require more treatment than another group of patients and when you’re put in the position of, there is no way of knowing as you go through the year what is going to happen at the end of the year. And so what do any doctor who wants to avoid being in this penalty box have to do? …I think this is one part of this that I think we should think long and hard about. There is no way of knowing when you go through the year, what you are going to do at the end of the year. . . . I think this is something we would get down the road and we’d regret."

Committee Chairman Senator Max Baucus (D-MT), although he emphasized what he saw as the need to reduce "overutilization," said, "Maybe Senator Kyl has a point here" and offered to "see what modification we can make to address his concern."

Under the rules regulating amendments in the committee, any amendment that strikes a provision "scored" by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) as cutting costs must include a measure that cuts the same amount in some other way. The CBO scored the penalty provision as cutting Medicare by $ 1 billion over ten years, and as proffered Senator Kyl’s amendment offset that by taking a corresponding amount from funding for the cooperative plans designed by Senator Conrad, and included in the bill proposed by Chairman Baucus, as a replacement for the much-debated "public plan."

Whether the Kyl Amendment to strike the "death spiral" provision, with a different offset, will be brought back with broad support, or whether it will face a closely divided vote, the next day or so is likely to show. Chairman Baucus has expressed his hope that the Senate Finance Committee will complete its consideration of amendments and take a final vote on approving the bill as amended by the end of the week.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

NAT HENTOFF ON THE “DEATH SPIRAL”

Be sure to read the column by acclaimed civil libertarian Nat Hentoff, “Health bill's deadly fine print”: http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=110710#

Thursday, September 17, 2009

“DEATH SPIRAL” RATIONING IN THE SENATE FINANCE BILL – DRIVING DOCTORS TO DENY CARE TO SENIOR CITIZENS



This is the cruelest and most effective way to ensure that doctors are forced to ration care for their senior citizen patients. It takes the telltale fingerprints from the government: instead of bureaucrats directly specifying the treatment denials that will mean death and poorer health for older people, it compels individual doctors to do the dirty work. It is an outrageous way to "reform" health care – by taking it away from America’s senior citizens.
National Right to Life Committee Executive Director David N. O’Steen, Ph.D.


Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus’s “Mark,” released September 16 and due to be considered in committee beginning Tuesday, September 22, contains a provision penalizing doctors based on how much medical treatment they direct for senior citizens on Medicare. It establishes that for at least five years (2015-2020), Medicare physicians who authorize treatments for their patients that wind up in the top 10% of per capita cost for a year will lose 5% of their total Medicare reimbursements for that year.

This means that all doctors treating older people will constantly be driven to try to order the least expensive tests and treatments for fear that they will be caught in that top 10%. Note that this feature operates independently of any considerations of quality, efficiency, or waste – if you authorize enough treatment for your patients, however necessary and appropriate it may be, you are in danger of being one of the 1 in 10 doctors who will be penalized each year.

Moreover, the penalty for Medicare doctors creates a moving target – by definition, there will ALWAYS be a top 10%, no matter how far down the total amount of money spent on Medicare is driven. Say that in 2015 the top 10% is anything over $10,000 per patient. In 2016 most doctors will scramble to hold down the treatments they authorize to avoid breaking that limit – with the result that the total amount spent will drop, so that the top 10% might then be, say, anything over $9,500. As the process repeats, the next year it might be anything over $9,000, the year after that anything over $8,000, and so on.

It's like a game of musical chairs, in which there is always 1 chair less than the number of players -- so no matter how fast the contestants run, someone will always be the loser when the music stops.

The disincentive to provide treatment for senior citizens the penalty creates is determined purely by cost, without any assessment of balancing cost with benefit. It will create a constant sense of uncertainty in doctors, since none can know in advance precisely what the cutoff for a given year will be – resulting in ever-increasing pressure to limit treatment and diagnostic tests to the bare minimum.


The provision to which this blog entry refers is as follows ( from documents available at http://finance.senate.gov/sitepages/legislation.htm ).

On pages 80-81, in the "Expansion of Physician Feedback Program" in Title III, Subtitle A, Part I; specifically, at the top of page 81: "Beginning in 2015, payment would be reduced by five percent if an aggregation of the physician's resource use is at or above the 90th percentile of national utilization. After five years, the Secretary would have the authority to convert the 90th percentile threshold for payment reductions to a standard measure of utilization, such as deviations from the national mean."

On page 80, the Chairman's Mark states, "In preparing feedback reports, the Secretary would be required to make appropriate data adjustments to (1) account for differences in the demographic characteristics and health status of individuals so as not to penalize those physicians who tend to serve less healthy individual [sic] who may require more intensive interventions, and (2) eliminate the effect of geographic adjustments in payment rates."

While these adjustments may reduce the degree to which physicians are disproportionately penalized if they have sicker patients or work in high-cost areas, they do not change the fundamental danger of this provision, which (as explained above) is to create continual pressure on doctors to make ever-increasing reductions in the treatments and tests they order for their patients so as to avoid being in the penalized top 10%.

CBO rates this as taking $1 billion from Medicare payments over a period of 6 years. See CBO 9/16/09 letter to Chairman Baucus, Table, page 3 of 7.